| id: | 68387 | date: | 6/16/2006 16:39 | refid: | 06LIMA2415 | origin: | Embassy Lima | classification: | CONFIDENTIAL | destination: | header: | ||||||||||||||||
| id: | 68387 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| date: | 6/16/2006 16:39 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| refid: | 06LIMA2415 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| origin: | Embassy Lima | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| classification: | CONFIDENTIAL | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| —————– header ends —————- C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002415 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016 TAGS: PGOV, KCRM, PINR, PE SUBJECT: FUJIMORISTAS LOOKING FORWARD TO COOPERATING WITH GARCIA GOVERNMENT IN RETURN FOR «IMPARTIALITY» Classified By: Polcouns Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d). 1. (C) SUMMARY: Legislators-elect Keiko and Santiago Fujimori, in a 6/12 meeting with Polcouns, said that their 13-member congressional bloc would be disciplined, and is prepared to work constructively with the incoming Garcia government in return for an end to «political persecution» and «impartiality» in the legal treatment of ex-President Alberto Fujimori. The Fujimoristas praised President-elect Alan Garcia’s political acumen, thought that they could reach an arrangement with him that would satisfy both parties, and expected the Apristas would continue to detach legislators elected on Ollanta Humala’s Union por el Peru (UPP) ticket. They expressed concern, however, over the social situation in isolated rural areas, particularly in the pro-Humala south, which they thought could be incited to violence by Humala or his followers. They doubted that the Garcia administration would have the time or capability to adequately address these demands in time to affect the November regional/municipal elections. END SUMMARY. 2. (C) Polcouns met for 90 minutes with legislators-elect Keiko and Santiago Fujimori, who were accompanied by former minister and President of Congress Jaime Yoshiyama, at Santiago Fujimori’s office on 6/12. In a wide-ranging discussion, the Fujimoristas addressed the following issues: — RELATIONS WITH THE GARCIA GOVERNMENT: Keiko and Santiago were confident that the 13-member Fujimorista legislative bloc will remain loyal and disciplined, thereby providing them with significant leverage in a divisive and inexperienced Congress. They hope to have a «constructive» relationship with the incoming Garcia Government, and will support policies that promote fiscal responsibility, increased foreign and domestic investment, free markets and free trade (including implementation of the Free Trade Agreement – Keiko said that she would ask her father to phone current Fujimorista legislator Marta Moyano to ensure that she backs the FTA), increased compensation for «losers» in the FTA, particularly in the agricultural sector, and augmented social spending, especially in rural areas. In return, they expect an end to the «political persecution» of Fujimoristas carried out under the current administration of President Alejandro Toledo, as well as «impartial» treatment for ex-President Alberto Fujimori in the extradition and criminal cases against him. Santiago declared that an ideal solution would be a deal under which Alberto could return to Peru and help siphon off votes from Humala in the November regional/municipal elections. Keiko commented that she doubted Garcia’s ego would countenance her father’s presence in Peru, but Santiago rejoined that he thought an arrangement could be worked out. — PRAISE FOR GARCIA: Yoshiyama was effuse with praise for Garcia’s and the Apristas’ political acumen. He noted that the President-elect is not/not one to bear grudges, and, despite having been the focus of criminal proceedings by the Fujimori Government, has let the Fujimoristas know that they will not/not face similar treatment under his government (NOTE: Keiko, Santiago and Yoshiyama have all faced criminal processes since Alberto went into exile, and Santiago currently is prohibited from leaving the country in connection with criminal charges related to the purchase of the presidential jet. END NOTE). Keiko and Santiago agreed that Garcia and his followers are adept at negotiating with other political forces, and put political expediency ahead of ideological or moral purity. Keiko said that the Fujimoristas are open to talks with the Apristas, while Santiago and Yoshiyama indicated that such talks are already underway, the latter naming several former Fujimori-era officials who could serve as ministers under Garcia. — BUT CONCERN ABOUT APRA’S CAPABILITIES: Santiago thought that Garcia’s stated policies of political inclusion, government austerity, openness to globalization and the world economy, and increased social programs for marginalized areas were the right way to go, but expressed doubts that the President-elect has the time or human resources necessary to make an impact in time to affect the regional/municipal elections. The APRA leader needs to start to build a supporting political coalition now, he commented, rather than wait until his inauguration. If he does not, Santiago warned, the earliest that Congress (which takes office on July 28 and traditionally spends the first month of each opening session bargaining over committee chairmanships) could organize itself to act would be September-October. He also doubted that APRA has the human resources necessary to adequately staff the technocrat positions needed to effectively implement the needed social policies, adding that Garcia’s vow to halve GOP salaries at the upper and managerial levels would have a negative impact on recruiting talented professionals. If Garcia staffs these jobs with APRA hacks, he warned, his presidency will be an even bigger disaster than his first term. — THE HUMALA FACTOR: Yoshiyama, referring to the announcement earlier that day that three UPP congressmen-elect had split from the Humalista bloc (Septel), said that it was to be expected that Humala’s congressional delegation would fracture given its impromtu formation and the quality of its members. He explained that many of Humala’s rural representatives at one time or another were in the Fujimorista ranks, and characterized most of them as unreliable «trash» who will graze where the grass is greenest. Santiago agreed with this assessment, but worried that Humala will always have the temptation to radicalize his approach and incite his followers to demonstrations or acts of violence, and that a shedding of congressional representatives could spur him to adopt this course. He characterized the south as a time bomb that could explode at any time, while Keiko said that other isolated and marginalized rural areas are just as discontented. She expressed concern that Humalistas could win the regional elections in the 15 departments taken by Humala in the presidential second round, adding that the Fujimoristas would present rival candidates in those regions and municipalities where they could find nominees of unquestioned quality and probity. 3. (C) COMMENT: The Fujimoristas know that their 13-member congressional bloc gives them a strong card to play in negotiations with the Garcia government, as they attempt to parlay their support in return for an arrangement that relaxes Alberto Fujimori’s legal situation. To what extent those discussions prosper remains to be seen. Santiago’s and Keiko’s worries about the Garcia administration’s time-frame for action and capabilities to implement needed policies are well taken, as are their concerns that Humala could exploit frustrations in marginalized areas to threaten governability and/or gain control over regional and municipal governments there. END COMMENT. STRUBLE =======================CABLE ENDS============================ |
